Contact Us

|

About

|

Search

Daily Report

Research Dossiers

Hall of Fame

Bookstore

Events

Links

Have Your Say

Alpha Ticker:

Search All Postings

Nav_3PA.gif mar 1
Nav Trends Mar 1
Nav Replication Mar 1
Nav All Cat Mar 1
SPON Morgan Mar 1
Spons Integra Mar 1
Spons CAIA mar 1
 

 

   Media Partners

terr mar 1
Sponsor_Button_lipper.gif
Sponsor_2ndRank_OPAL.gif
Sponsor_2ndRank_FIN.gif
Sponsor_2ndRank_IQ.gif
Sponsor_2ndRank_newstex.gif
Seeking.gif

  

   

 

Subscribe Now

Short positions throwing a wrench in the works for traditional (long-only) institutional investors

17 July 2008

The addition of short positions to traditional long-only portfolios adds a whole new dimension of complexity and requisite analytics.  This was true for mutual funds (see related postings) and is even more relevant for traditional (long-only) institutional investors.

We stumbled across this article by BNY Mellon’s fund administration arm that reveals some of this complexity.  The paper argues in favour of a holistic approach to portfolio risk analytics - an approach not always followed by institutional investors according to the firm:

“Many institutional clients, lured by the promise of additional returns at a risk discount, are jumping into these more complex alpha-generating strategies — many for the first time and many without reviewing the exposures and risks. Additionally, many of these short-enabled funds don’t have a long history of incorporating shorts into the overall portfolio strategy and may be introducing unintentional risks. In fact, many funds are outsourcing the short portion, resulting in two asset management teams working separately without understanding the total account makeup.

“…When aggregating and viewing a short-enabled account’s structure and fundamental makeup, we must combine the long and short market values instead of looking at the long and short portions separately.”

In essence, BNY Mellon is following the recommendations of Bruce Jacobs and Kenneth Levy who said in this article and others that you shouldn’t analyze a long/short portfolio as separate long and short portfolios since a combined portfolio will always be more optimal (i.e. have a higher risk/reward ratio).

The authors of this article use a simple example they call the “Russell 2000 Argument” to illustrate the analytics of the same idea.  They compare two rudimentary portfolios - one long the Russell 1000 and one long the Russell 3000 and short the Russell 2000 (stocks 1001-3000 of the R3000). 

While both funds are essentially identical from an exposure standpoint, they differ on several common measures, namely:

  • Counts and medians – The R3000L/R1000S and R2000 strategies invest in a different number of securities to achieve the same risk profile. 
  • Arithmetic Averages – Straight averages do not differentiate between long and short positions. Weighted averages do differentiate long and short positions and the results between the two investment approaches will equal.
  • Liquidity measures – The liquidity figures within the profile report shown below don’t utilize the absolute methodology highlighted within this paper.

While this may seem kind of obvious using this simple example, you can see how these same issues can throw a hedge fund administrator or risk manager into a tizzy when things become more complex.  The paper goes through a fictitious example of a market neutral fund to show how exposure figures can get wildly out of whack when the net exposure of the fund shrinks to zero (as in a market neutral fund).  What was a modest negative exposure to tech and healthcare, in the example below, becomes gargantuan when compared to the funds puny net exposure.

To combat this deficiency in traditional analytical techniques, BNY Mellon essentially recommends that net exposures be calculated on a sector basis and by beta- and market cap-weighting the holdings (collectively falling under the name of “tilt” approaches).

But the deficiencies in traditional fund analytics don’t end there.  The traditional approach to calculating portfolio liquidity (”days trading volume held”) uses a net exposure denominator.  Again, this could be a very small number for a market neutral fund - making the fund look wildly illiquid.  Instead, BNY Mellon recommends that the denominator be gross exposure, not net exposure.

While these issues are second nature for hedge funds themselves, they illustrate some of the challenges being faced by traditional long-only managers as they start to add on short positions in 1X0/X0 funds.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



The Road Ahead for Hedge Funds: Pot holes or sink holes?

16 July 2008

As Dow Jones points out today, hedge funds were “hard hit by the downturn on equity markets for the first half of 2008″.  They cite new Morningstar data showing that US-based equity hedge funds are down over 2% for the year.  Hard hit?  Yes.  But not compared to long-only funds - down nearly 12% YTD. 

In fact, Morningstar’s own press release yesterday observed:

“Overall, hedge funds, including funds of hedge funds, buffered the traditional stock and bond markets over the second quarter. Equity and bond markets saw losses all over the world, while the Morningstar Fund of Hedge Funds Index gained 1.43%.”

The Morningstar release goes on reveal that performance chasing is alive and well in Hedgistan.  While we have reported extensively about the flow of assets from smaller hedge funds to larger hedge funds, Morningstar’s data shows that money is also flowing quickly from stinky funds to ones that have maintained their bouquet through the credit crunch:

“Morningstar’s hedge fund flow data also show that, through May, assets moved to the Morningstar-rated 4-, and 5-star hedge funds, and redeemed the 1-, 2-, and 3-star hedge funds. Four- and 5-star hedge funds received more than $10 billion in new assets through May, while 1- and 2-star hedge funds bled almost $10 billion in assets over the same period.”

It’s against this rather depressing backdrop that the McKinsey Global Institute released its annual report yesterday on “The New Power Brokers” (that’s SWFs, hedge funds and PE funds, in case you’re not one of them).  The subtitle of the report “…Gaining Clout in Turbulent Times” seems to suggest that hedge funds may have simply hit a bump on the road.

Here’s a side-view of that pot hole…

The chart on the right is more important than most hedge fund asset figures you hear quoted each month because it shows asset flows (ignoring the effect of positive or negative returns).  Thus, it captures investor appetite for hedge funds.  While appetite and returns are obviously correlated in the long run, they can run counter to one another in the short term.  For example, Q1 returns were negative, but new asset inflows shored up the loss and led to a slight increase in AUM.

Still, as Morningstar says, hedge funds have been performing relatively well compared to long-only funds.  In McKinsey’s own words: “Nearly every hedge fund strategy beat the S&P500 between March 2007 and March 2008″.   

 

Who knows if Q2’s relatively strong results for hedge funds will bring in new assets or whether the pot hole will turn into a sink hole.  But it does suggest that hedge funds may offer the best detour around the obstructions ahead.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



As markets fall, stock lending keeps on truckin’

15 July 2008

They say that the market for borrowing stocks (to execute short sales) is one of the last great inefficient corners of the financial industry - where participants can simply back their trucks up to the loading dock and use a pitch fork to shovel the cash inside. 

In general, stocks are lent out on an ad hoc basis, allowing the lender (or more accurately, the lender’s agent, the prime broker) to set the “borrow fee” in a relative vacuum rather than letting the market dictate it.  The resulting borrow fee is still loosely based on the supply and demand for the borrow.  So if everyone wants to short a stock, then the demand will increase and the fee will rise. 

The possibility of a looming “shortage of shorts” has been bouncing around for some (see, for example, our posting “A Shortage of Shorts?” from November 2007). 

You’d think that a demand-driven increase in borrow fee would be accompanied by a commensurate drop in the price of the stock itself.  After all, if everyone hates the company all of sudden shouldn’t the price fall?  And as the price falls, shouldn’t some of the froth come out of the borrow demand (as marginal investors sense they have missed their chance to board the train)? 

Not so.  We reported some data from Goldman Sachs last fall that suggested the smaller supply of Russell 2000 stocks had led to an increase in borrow fees during 2007.  But many experts felt at that time that the huge supply of lendable large cap stocks would keep borrow costs under control.

But now we’re starting to see evidence that even large cap borrows might actually be in short supply.  The Independent reported yesterday that the average borrow fee for a blue-chip security has doubled in the past 10 months on both sides of the Atlantic.  But it gets worse.  The paper says the fee to borrow a mid-cap (FTSE 250) name has tripled during the same time period. 

How low will markets have to go to remove some of the enthusiasm for shorting (and with it, some of the froth from borrow demand)?  That’s anyone’s guess.  But for the time being, the pension funds and other long-term investors who lend out their stock are helping the prime brokerages shovel the cash into the truck.   

Addendum: While the Independent says there is “no market” for shorting, there are some emerging business models that may eventually bring some sanity to the borrow market.  One is the recently-launched Lendex that allows lenders to side-step prime brokerages and list their lendable stocks themselves.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Making a negative call? Meet the new boss - same as the old boss.

15 July 2008

Sure, naked shorting and starting false rumours are socially undesirable.  But isn’t there something a little ironic in the SEC’s clamp-down on negative opinions?  Even the youngest junior analysts can remember a day not too long ago when the scarcity of any negative ratings was considered proof that research was actually just a lap-dog of the sell-side.  Back then, with only one or two percent of analyst recommendations of the negative variety, the SEC wanted to see more “sell!” and less “buy!”.

After peaking in 2003, sell ratings are still relatively rare - but they may become even rarer if the SEC starts to investigate people who don’t happen to love a particular stock.  As Thomson reported today:

“The big fear is that regulators will show up at hedge funds and brokerages, armed with subpoenas, demanding trading, phone and e-mail records to determine if any of them are to blame for declines in the shares of major financial companies such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.”

In May 2002, the SEC issued new rules to remove what it felt was a muzzle on analysts’ negative views.  In the press release announcing its new rules, the commission said its goal was:

“…to address conflicts of interest that are raised when research analysts recommend securities in public communications. These conflicts can arise when analysts work for firms that have investment banking relationships with the issuers of the recommended securities, or when the analyst or firm owns securities of the recommended issuer.”

If the threat of being fired for issuing negative recommendations was conflict of interest, then what about the new threat of being thrown in jail for peddling negativity?  Ironically, analysts now face another conflict of interest - keep your mouth shut about negative views or get investigated by the SEC. 

In an Orwellian twist, it seems that the SEC has pulled those muzzles out of storage and may be dusting them off right now.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



New study says widely-used models “can be particularly misleading in performance evaluation”

14 July 2008

It seems to have become a financial axiom that actively managed mutual funds fail to justify their fees.  Ergo, index funds are often proposed as the best way to lose the least amount of money. 

But what if the underperformance of actively managed funds has been driven by their underlying strategy, not their stock-picking buffoonery?

Beneath the complexity of their recent paper on benchmark indices, that’s the question posed by Martijn Cremers and Antti Petajisto of Yale and Eric Zitzewitz of Dartmouth. (You may recall the names Cremers and Petajisto from their paper on “active share” – a new metric to measure active management.  See related posting.)

The researchers found that academic models aimed at isolating manager skill by adding new variables to the CAPM (such as the Fama/French and Carhart models) are a “substantial weakness”.  Instead, they propose using actual indices as variables in an equation to reveal manager skill.

If this sounds familiar, it’s because William Sharpe himself actually used real-life indices in his seminal 1992 paper on Style Analysis.  But as the authors of this report point out, most of the literature since has relied on more academic variables such as Fama and French’s “Small Minus Big (SMB)” market cap variable.
 
It turns out that the pure index-based models actually perform the best in terms of pricing and performance evaluation, and thus they would serve as a good replacement for the commonly used academic factor models.  These indices, argue the researchers, “represent well-diversified portfolios that naturally qualify as proxies for systematic factor risk.”

Continues the paper:

“…even pure index funds tracking common benchmark indices would appear to have significant positive or negative skill.  Yet these indices represent broad, well-diversified, and passive portfolios which almost by definition should have zero alphas…these nonzero index alphas are symptoms of a deeper problem in the Fama-French and Carhart methodology.”

So What?

More than an esoteric academic debate, this has some pretty major implications on the way we analyse and rank mutual funds.  In fact, it can completely reverse the conclusions drawn from traditional analysis techniques.

“In performance evaluation applications, we verify that the benchmark alphas can also have a significant impact. When we sort mutual funds into groups across size and value dimensions, the Carhart model indicates that small-cap funds underperformed large-cap funds by 2.13% per year from 1996 to 2005. But this result arises from the fact that the four-factor alphas of the small-cap benchmark indices are on average an astounding 5.07% per year less than that of the large-cap indices. If instead we control for the benchmark index of a fund, the results are completely reversed, and we find that small-cap funds outperformed large-cap funds by 2.94%. These numbers are certainly large enough to affect manager selection, especially given that mutual fund alphas are generally so close to zero.”

They find that the typical actively-managed fund may have underperformed due to its focus on small caps, not due to bad stock picking…

“Controlling for exposure to the Russell 2000 entirely eliminates the difference between the index funds and the median expense actively managed funds, and controlling for the S&P 500 eliminates much of the remaining difference between the median and most expensive funds. Expensive actively managed funds have loaded more heavily on the Russell 2000 and less heavily on the S&P 500, while index funds and inexpensive actively managed funds have done the reverse.”

The bottom line, according to the authors:

“The Fama-French and Carhart models can be particularly misleading in performance evaluation due to the large alphas they assign to passive benchmark indices, and they generate unnecessarily noisy alpha estimates. But also in standard asset pricing tests we can improve cross-sectional explanatory power by replacing the SMB and HML factors with index factors…Our analysis of mutual fund returns reveals the dramatic impact that the benchmark alphas can have on inferences about performance.”

In other words, according to this research, the performance of active management seems to depend on your perspective.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Alternative investing to be taken off endangered species list

13 July 2008

Last week, while JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon was busy attacking short sellers, his firm released the latest edition of its annual institutional investor survey.  Given recent events both inside and outside the hedge fund sector, it makes for a fascinating read.  The summary results of the report, “Next Generation Alternative Investing” are available here with a quick and free registration.

Much as an animal is removed from the endangered species list when its numbers multiply, the report concludes that alternative investments may soon out-grow that moniker.

Says the summary:

“The survey confirms that these strategies—now established components of many institutional portfolios—are no longer “alternative” at all. In fact, alternatives now play an essential role in institutional portfolio strategies, and we expect across-the-board allocation increases despite recent market turmoil.”

Notably, this year’s survey included questions on portable alpha and 130/30 strategies (appropriately, we might add, discussed in the same breath).

What is probably most striking about these findings is that the popularity of alternative investments is pegged to grow over the next 3 years despite market mayhem (that has led to the worst first half for hedge funds since 1990).  As the report points out, some of this increased demand is a result of market mayhem itself.

Click to ViewAs the chart at right shows (click on it to view), demand for hedge funds is expected to increase by 25% over the 2007-2010 time period.  The report also finds that 40% of asset flows into alternative assets will go to hedge funds over the next three years.

The report goes on to say that over 50% of respondents said they planned to increase hedge fund allocations in the next three years while only 7% said they would decrease allocations.

About a quarter of respondents said they were currently using 130/30 strategies.  That’s pretty high when compared to other recent surveys on the topic (see related posting).

In the clearest sign yet of the ”next big thing”, JP Morgan places “green investing” on the chart (below) with portable alpha and its successor 130/30.  (Note the number of respondents in this asset class is set to nearly double over the next 3 years) 

   

Who’s driving the green express?  Public pension plans.  Their reputation for more innovative strategies (such as portable alpha) seems to be conspiring with their slightly more social mandates to make this category of investors particularly predisposed to green investing.

Click to ViewAre investors happy with returns?  Well, it depends who you ask.  As the chart at right shows (click on it to view), public pensions are most pleased with real estate returns and least pleased with the returns of their private equity funds.  Corporate pension plan, on the other hand, are equally pleased with real estate, but not wit their hedge funds.  Endowments and foundations share this concern about hedge fund returns, but say that they are most pleased with their allocations to “absolute return” strategies in general.

Finally, on the topic of fees, the report observes:

“While fees are not cited among the top investor concerns, there is clearly emerging pressure on fees. Investors believe that fees are fair as long as performance expectations are met, which should be a red flag to managers that there could be a backlash on fees, or a greater demand for performance-based fee schedules, should performance start to lag expectations.”

This report is timely because it reminds us that, despite some inevitable performance-chasing, there are fundamental trends driving the move to alternative investments.  So fundamental it seems, that alternatives may soon cease to be alternative at all.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Weekly Newsreel

10 July 2008

Giants launched with record $19.5 bln in first half:  Industry concentration means that its feast and famine at the same time in the hedge fund industry.

Swedish funds hope rules to change soon: The Swedish public pension scheme lobbies its government to allow more access to alternative investments.  As P&I observes, “Alternatives managers — particularly global players — should be in the best position to benefit from what consultants estimate will be billions of dollars up for grabs.”  

Don’t Pay Alpha Fees for Beta Performance: Advisor Perspectives gives us a sneak peak at a new article by previous AllAboutAlpha guest contributor Larry Siegel on various alpha-centric themes.  This is a great discussion - particulary for financial advisors.

Hedge funds hit troubled banks with a hiring binge: More on a topic in last week’s newsreel - the employee pillaging being conducted by hedge funds.

Bigger may be better as smaller hedge funds give up: Says one industry player, “The costs of entry into the hedge fund industry have always been very low, but the costs of remaining in business are very high.”

Fewer U.S. hedge fund starts so far this year: Reuters reports on Absolute Return magazine’s analysis of US hedge fund start-ups. 

UK asset management industry moves towards multi-boutique model: Gartmore isn’t the only asset manager wrapping itself in the “multi-boutique” flag.

Aberdeen changes tack on hedge fund strategy: Another UK-based manager says “Hedge funds are going to be a long term game and not a short term win.”  (ed: especially for Aberdeen, which is now a quarter-owned by hedge funds) 

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



A Note on Hedge Fund Fees: the Best is Yet to Come

9 July 2008

Angelo Calvello has been around the alpha-centric investing world longer than almost anyone.  In fact according to our research, he actually coined the term “alpha-centric” investing.  In a guest posting today, he applies this thinking to hedge fund fees.  And what he concludes will surely surprise many.  

Special to AllAboutAlpha.com by: Angelo A. Calvello, Ph.D. 

I recently attended a conference on 130/30 strategies.  The discussion eventually and inevitably drifted to the well worn but poorly understood topic of hedge fund fees and more specifically the inevitable compression of those charges. 

It is a debate founded on the belief that hedge fund fees are simply too high, although it is not clear what yardstick is being used to support this conclusions. Hedge fund fees could be compared to those charged by traditional long-only managers, but this would assume that fees charged for ‘active’ long only management fairly represent the value added by these strategies.  This, of course, is questionable. 

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Are hedge funds really “clinging to hope”?

8 July 2008

clingtohope1.jpgThe list of stories below was lifted from the most recent edition of our “Alpha Mail” monthly email update.  Each month, we try to highlight stories that illustrate two sides of a hedge fund or alpha-centric issue.  This month’s set of links clearly illustrate the wide divergence of angles on the current state of the hedge fund industry. (note: you’ll need a free registration to view some of these.)

Battered funds cling to hope of recovery (Financial News): “Hedge funds are struggling to shake off their worst quarter since records began…”

Hedge fund investors want out sooner, not later (Reuters): “Worried about hedge funds’ low returns and high fees, more well-heeled investors are now talking about getting out of these loosely regulated portfolios than getting into them…”

HNWIs cool on allocation to hedge funds (Hedge Funds Review): “Allocation to hedge funds from high net worth individuals (HNWIs) slipped to 9% in 2007 from 10% in 2006…”

Tough Markets Alter HF Managers’ Practices (HedgeWorld): “Last year’s turbulent market environment prompted hedge fund managers around the world to lower leverage ratios and move a significant share of their assets into cash…”

Investor Allocations to Hedge Funds Jump 28% (Financial News): “Institutional investors allocated $195 billion to hedge funds last year, a 28% increase over 2006 as institutional money continues to flow to fund managers despite a decline in performance…” 

Pension Assets in Alternatives up 40% (HedgeWorld): “Alternative assets managed on behalf of pension funds by the world’s 99 largest investment managers grew by 40%…”

Hedge fund exodus fails to surface (IPE): “Even with falling returns, institutional investors are still happy to invest in hedge funds, according to research-based consultant Greenwich Associates…”

High Growth Reported for the Hedge Funds in Europe 2008 (MarketWatch): A new report concludes “The European Hedge fund market is going through a period of exponential growth”

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



LDI: The Quest for “Del Boca Vista”

7 July 2008

The results from a survey were released last week on a topic that will either interest you or bore you tears – Liability-Driven Investing (LDI).  We’ve covered this topic here at AllAboutAlpha.com because one of its constituent parts is often a hedge fund or portable alpha strategy.

More on the survey below.  But first, if you do all you can to avoid this topic; you might be well served to give it a second chance.  Try looking at it this way…

Pension Liabilities: Del Boca Vista

Frank Costanza: Are you telling me there’s not one condo available in all of Del Boca Vista?
Morty: That’s right. They went like hotcakes.
Frank: How’d you get yours?
Morty: Got lucky.
Frank: Are you trying to keep us out of Del Boca Vista?!

Let’s say you’re Seinfeld’s Frank Costanza (George’s father) and you’re saving for a glorious retirement at Del Boca Vista, a well-manicured retirement community in sunny Florida.  It’s 1998 and you calculate that your annual savings plus a few good hedge fund investments will cover the costs of that dream condo (to be built some time in 2011).

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Gartmore: Fish or Fowl?

6 July 2008

In January, we noted that mega money manager BlackRock had recently reported growth in alternative investments and money-market funds, despite a relatively stagnant traditional active long-only business.  We suggested that this was an example of what McKinsey has called a “vise-like squeeze” for traditional long-only managers. 

As this recent FT piece illustrates, Gartmore, the UK-based traditional money manager, is also responding to the squeeze by slowly becoming a hedge fund firm as it faced pressures that lopped off half its assets earlier in the decade (FT chart, below).  

Reports the FT:

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Newsreel: Hedge fund headhunting, M&A, and scapegoats

3 July 2008

Hedge Funds Hire From Wall Street as Jobs Disappear, Pay Falls: Bloomberg reports that hedge fund recruiters may be the biggest beneficiaries of the carnage on Wall Street.

Asia to Create Thousands of Hedge Fund Jobs, Pinnacle Says: And it appears that some of those hedge fund recruiters are likely to be located in Asia. 

First Half 2008 Sets Record for Alternatives Manager M&A: Putnam Lovell predicts “In the next 12 months, we expect strong M&A activity involving battered banks and other financial institutions divesting asset management businesses to raise capital, and continued record demand for alternatives.”

Feds Cast Scapegoat Net, Snag Cioffi and Tannin: Bloomberg’s Caroline Baum, author of the book “Just What I Said”, reiterates just what we said last week about the fundamental questions raised by the recent Bear Stearns indictments.

Hedge-fund mystique: the need for transparency: The Australian reports that Morningstar VP of research says it’s time for hedge funds to come clean.

US Presidential Election May Spur Hedge Fund Regulation: Then again, hedge funds may have no choice if this guy is right.

Finding alpha with few bets: Seeking to avoid short-selling, institutions are looking to “concentrated” funds for long-only alpha.  (ed: While not technically short-selling, a concentrated portfolio has a negative weighting vs. its benchmark in a huge number of names and a positive weighting in select others - raising interesting questions about whether a long/short fund is really that different.)   

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Researchers: If index funds are a commodity, why are their fees so divergent?

2 July 2008

Last week, we told you about a paper that suggested price competition in the mutual fund industry was somewhat less than robust.  Rather than lopping all mutual funds into one pot and comparing their fees, the authors of that report examined the fees of individual funds relative to their Morningstar category average.  While not as ideal as examining the active management delivered by each fund, this approach loosely categorizes funds by their level of active management (e.g. the small cap growth category has a higher level of active management than the large cap value category).

Although not directly examined by that particular paper, one category that makes no denials about its lack of active management is the S&P Index Mutual Fund category.  These (almost) purely passive funds are the subject of another paper by the same authors available here.

In “Institutional S&P 500 Index Mutual Funds as Financial Commodities: Fact or Fiction?” John Haslem, Kent Baker and David Smith examine whether index funds are really are all the same and whether they are truly “commodities”.

They find a wide variation in the fees (and therefore the performance) of S&P index funds.  This is counter-intuitive given their common Investment strategy, but even more counterintuitive when one considers that institutional investors should be less likely than retail investors to pay unwarranted fees.

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Cap Intro: The new emphasis for prime brokers. But how much do funds care?

1 July 2008

Last fall, after a particularly busy period on the pro-am hedge fund conference circuit, we noted that prime broker salespeople seemed to all be updating their business card to include the title “cap intro”.  Apparently, capital introduction (a.k.a. fund raising assistance) was seen as a great way to differentiate one’s self from the growing throngs of prime brokerages. 

At around the same time, eFinancial News noted

“By strengthening their capital introduction teams – once seen as a glorified dating service – prime brokers hope to secure potentially lucrative start-up funds as clients.”

But a recent survey of hedge funds raises some questions about what really attracts and retains prime brokerage clients.  AllAboutAlpha.com media partner FINalternatives just released the results of its 2008 prime brokerage survey.  It concludes that the new focus on cap intro may not be generating a lot of fans:

“One in three hedge fund managers considers the capital introduction services they receive from their prime brokerages to be ‘poor’, the survey shows.  In fact, only one in four rate such services as ‘fair’ and just one in six say they are ‘good’.  A miniscule one in nine considers their prime broker’s capital introduction services as ‘excellent’.”

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Sweden’s AP7 pension fund reports on progress of alpha/beta retooling

30 June 2008

With its (appropriate) focus on generating returns, the asset management industry tends not to spend inordinate amounts of time on introspection - on the way firms in the industry management and organize themselves.  As management consults are fond of saying “form follows function”.  That’s consulting-speak for “structure follows strategy”. 

A great example of an organization that realizes the holistic implications of alpha/beta separation is Sweden’s AP7, one of the country’s many so-called “buffer funds” designed to fund the retirements of its citizens.  Regular readers may recall AP7 and its forward-thinking CIO Richard Grottheim.  As we reported in January, AP7 has recently awarded what it calls “pure alpha briefs” that are essentially notional overlays applied to the fund’s passive portfolio.

A few weeks ago, Grottheim and colleagues including one from the Stockholm School of Economics, revealed how AP7 is set up to undertake this kind of innovation in a new white paper.  In this paper, Grottheim and friends propose an org. structure that they say shows “not only significant improvement in portfolio performance, but also a more transparent and cost efficient portfolio structure.”

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Alternative Viewpoints: Commodities not about “buy and hold”

29 June 2008

With so much interest in commodities, we thought this might be a good time to revisit the rationale for so-called “managed futures” funds. But as Keith Black, CAIA, of consultant Ennis Knupp + Associates says, commodity investing is about a lot more than buying and holding commodities in hopes that the Chinese continue to buy new cars.

The Case for Commodities

kblack.jpgSpecial to AllAboutAlpha.com by: Keith Black, CFA, CAIA, Associate, Ennis Knupp + Associates

Over the last several years, institutional investors have more than doubled their allocation (to over $200 billion), to financial products whose returns are linked to those of commodity indices. Commodities may be attractive due to: the low correlation between their returns and those of other asset classes, the high correlation of commodities returns with unexpected inflation, and the rising demand for commodities from fast-growing emerging markets countries, such as China and India.

In fact, when you look at the performance of these commodity indices during the best and worst quarters for the Wilshire 5000 (and quintiles in between), you can see that they have produced modestly positive returns in almost all quintiles. In fact, the correlation between commodity indices and other major asset classes is generally below 0.2.  

Commodity Beta via Equities

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Hedge fund seeding: “hot” or “not”?

26 June 2008

A few years ago, before social networking was all the rage, a website called “Hot or Not” was launched to allow webs surfers to post their photo and generate, shall we say, feedback on their appearance.  Today, the site is used to canvas users on everything from American Idol candidates to political candidates (example: Obama seems to be totally smoking McCain)  

But strangely absent from the line-up is hedge fund seeding.  The strategy seems to run hot and cold and would surely have elicited some chippy debate.  (okay, maybe not).

At the beginning of this year, seeding was hot (see related posting).  Then it was not (see related posting).  And with the continuation of a difficult fundraising environment for hedge funds, seeding is hot again.  In fact, it was in the news several times last week.

eFinancial News reports on HFR data showing that new hedge fund launches are at their lowest level in 8 years.  One reason, suggests eFinancial News…

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Is the mutual fund industry competitive enough?

25 June 2008

Industries dominated by fixed costs tend to experience a lot of price competition.  You don’t have to look any further than the airline industry to find evidence of this economic axiom.  In fact, price competition is often even more fierce in growth industries where price cuts are enabled by economies of scale.  For example, the Model T Ford had a price tag of $850 when it was launched - blowing away most rivals priced in the $2000-$3000 range.  Within a few years, the Model T MSRP was around $300 - illustrating to the world the new economics of scale.

But price competition seems to have bypassed one particular fixed-cost business - the money management business.  This, according to an article in the Journal of Investing that was made available for free recently.  The paper by John Haslem of the University of Maryland, Kent Baker of the American University and David Smith of SUNY at Albany has the benign-sounding title “Identification and Performance of Equity Mutual Funds with High Management Fees and Expense Ratios”.  But don’t be fooled.  The authors rail against what they see as a lack of price competition in the US (and by extension the global-) mutual fund industry before examining the relationship between fees and performance.  They even name names - highlighting the US mutual funds with the highest relative fees in the land.  

In their words:

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Alpha Magazine’s New Hall of Fame

24 June 2008

The AllAboutAlpha.com “Hall of Fame” contains a who’s who of academics, entrepreneurs and researchers in the field of investment management and hedge funds.  But one group we have not included in the Hall are hedge fund managers themselves - the ones who actually make money from the ideas and theories espoused by financial innovators and thinkers. 

Thankfully, our good friends at Alpha Magazine have just launched their own hall of fame, appropriately called the “Alpha’s Hedge Fund Hall of Fame“.  It will contain several great write-ups on hedge fund legends such as:

  • Louis Bacon, Moore Capital Management
  • Steven Cohen, SAC Capital Advisors
  • Kenneth Griffin, Citadel Investment Group
  • Alfred Winslow Jones, A.W. Jones & Co. (posthumous)
  • Paul Tudor Jones II, Tudor Investment Corp.
  • Seth Klarman, Baupost Group
  • Bruce Kovner, Caxton Associates
  • Leon Levy, Odyssey Partners (posthumous)
  • Jack Nash, Odyssey Partners
  • Julian Robertson Jr., Tiger Management Corp.
  • James Simons, Renaissance Technologies Corp.
  • George Soros, Soros Fund Management
  • Michael Steinhardt, Steinhardt Partners
  • David Swensen, Yale University  

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



130/30 bull run still has some legs: S&P

24 June 2008

Hedge Funds Review reports that S&P is telling clients that 130/30 is “strategy to watch in 2009” (no word on what to watch now or for the next six months - but it’s an ugly year anyway). 

Taking a page from Andrew Lo, co-author of the recent academic paper “130/30: The New Long-only“, S&P’s Srikant Dash told a London audience earlier this week that “Asset managers are moving into this area and eventually these funds will take a significant share from traditional active funds”.   

This year may not be a bust though.  Referring to one particularly aggressive market estimate, another S&P official apparently said 2008 could also be shaping up to be a barn-burner:

“I know of one analyst who predicted there would be $1.6 trillion by the end of 2008 linked to 130/30 funds”.

According to Hedge Funds Review, S&P is launching two new 130/30 indices later this year.  This, after an S&P-authored research paper recently argued that the best benchmark for 130/30 funds is probably a long-only index (see related posting, read report).  Maybe that was a different “S&P” (?)

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Virtual private equity a step closer to reality

23 June 2008

A lot has been written over the past few years about hedge fund/private equity “hybrids” where a so-called “side-pocket” is created to hold a particularly illiquid investment.  But while these funds may indeed contain both asset classes, they are long and short in public equities and long-only in private equities.  In other words, it is difficult to actually hedge private equity.

Of course, you could always short comparable public equities (or even an index) against a long position in private equity.  In fact, given the high correlation between private equity and public equity, that might not be a bad idea.  There has been some research showing that a leveraged public equity position could actually trump private equity on a risk adjusted basis (see related posting). 

But insofar as private equity has its own return characteristics that are uncorrelated with public equity beta, it can’t truly be hedged.

This may be changing soon.  State Street is reportedly working on a “private equity replication” model that will complement its existing hedge fund replication model (see recent posting on that one). 

Eric Brandhorst, head of the research and structured products group at SSgA told Thomson last week:

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Goldman’s new “A.R.T.” HF-Replication-Mutual-Fund

22 June 2008

As we reported in our weekly newsreel on Monday, Goldman Sachs just launched a mutual fund based on its recently-launched hedge fund replication index called the “Absolute Return Tracker” (ART).  As the FT reports, the fund aims to highlight how a large proportion of hedge fund returns are just “exotic beta” not true alpha. 

“The underlying theory makes sense. Some of hedge funds’ performance is down to alpha, or fund managers’ skill. For that, for now, you will continue to have to pay fees.

But a large amount of it is beta. In other words, it is predictably correlated with various markets. Absolute return managers will tend to cluster around similar asset allocations; it is possible to model this behaviour; and hence it is possible passively to capture a large chunk of the value that absolute return managers deliver, and pay much less for it.”

The nuts and bolts behind “ART” are a state secret, but the fund’s prospectus describes it this way:

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



A closer look at the CSX/TCI and Bear Stearns cases

21 June 2008

“In the Criminal Justice System the people are represented by two separate, yet equally important groups. The police who investigate crime and the District Attorneys who prosecute the offenders. These are their stories.”

Two recent court cases have captured the attention of hedge funds.  One pits a corporate raider cum philanthropist (TCI) against the increasingly desperate management of a old-line 100,000-car railroad (CSX).  The other accuses two average-Joe hedge fund managers as the ones who originally infected patient zero in the global credit pandemic (Bear Stearns’ High Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund or “BSHGSCSELF” for short)

Many of the facts surrounding each case have been obfuscated by sensational reporting.  CNN’s Lou Dobb’s demanded, for example, that US legislators block the hostile take-over of CSX by London-based activist hedge fund TCI on national security grounds.  Likewise, many mass media outlets seem to have bought into prosecutors’ arguments that the duo who ran Bear Stearns’ now infamous CDO fund were personally responsible for the entire global credit crunch.

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Hedge funds starting to get “voted off the island”

19 June 2008

As the hedge fund industry matures, assets are flowing disproportionately to the larger players in what some have called a “shakeout”.  Taking a page from TV’s “Survivor”, investors are apparently starting to vote smaller players off the (Manhattan) island. 

Usually, the term “shakeout” refers to the culling of weaker, smaller players in an industry in favour of the larger and more dominant competitors.  So it’s striking that Business Week this week suggests that the “parade of cave-ins” in Hedgistan included funds managed by major financial institutions (e.g. Citi, UBS, and parade-marshal Bear Stearns). 

The ones doing the culling?  Pure play asset managers such as Bridgewater and BGI.  In fairness, JP Morgan (which bought and subsequently grew Highbridge) and Goldman (which today announced its hide was saved in Q2 by its asset management business), buck the trend.  But 8 of the top 10 largest hedge fund managers in Alpha magazine’s listing of the largest US hedge funds last month were NOT run by investment banks or other large financial services firms (we’d say that #9 BGI runs pretty independently of Barclays).  So the question remains, what’s up with the bank-run hedge funds?

Despite a rocky road for some bank-owned hedge funds, size continues to be an advantage.  Reports BusinessWeek:

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



When it comes to hedge fund compensation, “social usefulness” is a red-herring

18 June 2008

After the release of Alpha Magazine’s rankings of the highest-paid hedge fund managers (e.g. John Paulson of Paulson & Co.), we questioned the uproar over the compensation of some managers.  Although astronomical, their compensation fell short of gains logged by entrepreneurs in other sectors (e.g. by Gates, Buffett, Bloomberg, and several lesser-known rich guys).

We proposed a number of hypotheses to explain this apparent double-standard.  One was that traditional entrepreneurs created a product or service of tangible value.  However, the value created by hedge fund managers (provision of liquidity etc.) is intangible at best.  As a result, hedge fund managers are often accused of simply “re-arranging the chairs”, not building them.

But a letter in last Thuraday’s New York Times by John Berlau of the Competitive Enterprise Institute reminded us how traditional entrepreneurs shouldn’t be given a free ride since they create something tangible.

Berlau was responding to a June 10 Times Op-Ed (IHT reprint here) that said:

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Non-market-cap indices dissed in Europe this week

18 June 2008

Rob Arnott, the outspoken proponent of “fundamental indexation” might want monitor what’s being said in Paris this week.  Arnott is the owner of the patent for “non-cap-weighted indices” (see related posting).  But IPE reports that Alain Dubois, the head of Lyxor Asset Management a SocGen subsidiary, told a conference audience:

“It could create a market phenomenon, like reduction of very high market caps, and could lead to performance of these indices just because everybody invests in them…It is an interesting trend, but should be arbitraged as soon as possible.”

Piling on was Tomas Franzen, head of AP2, one Sweden’s national pension funds who apparently added:

“…it is the market-cap-indices that are flawed and not necessarily the alternatives that are, per se, intelligent.”

Arnott might not actually disagree with this assessment since he has often referred to fundamental indexation as simple common sense (see related posting).  In either case, the value of his patents is probably doing just fine.

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



Lending stock to yourself: nifty idea, but effectively just active long-only management?

17 June 2008

Since May 2002, a Hong Kong based enhanced index fund manager has been essentially lending stock to itself to create short positions in its long/short equity fund.  The result has been a portfolio architecture that one usually finds only at the largest, most sophisticated institutions.

The firm (”Enhanced Index Products Company” or “EIP”) was the subject earlier this week of a Reuters article that said the firm “is looking to triple its assets through a rare marriage of passive and alternative investing, creating market tracking index funds it can use to source stock for complex trades.”

Essentially, EIP uses its much larger index funds as a source for the stock borrow required by the relatively puny long/short fund - a strategy to short-selling that the firm says is “ideal solution for markets where hedge funds can’t easily or cheaply borrow stock they need for their often sophisticated trading strategies”.

Read the rest of this entry »

E-Mail This Post/Page Email this post to a friend  Print This Post/Page Print This Post 

Comments »



French fries active management

16 June 2008

In March, we wrote about a yet to be published paper by Kenneth French called “The Cost of Active Management”.  In this paper, French concludes that the total cost of the “futile search for superior returns” is 67 bps or about 10% of annual returns (resulting from management fees and trading costs).  At the time, all we had to go on was a New York Times article about the paper by well-known financial commentator Marc Hulbert.  A recent interview with French by the online newsletter Advisor Perspectives brought this paper back to our attention.  The full study is now available online and we felt was worthy of a second, more detailed, examination. 

Immediate benefits of active management 

Institutions have increased their allocatio