03-01-10 © Okea

    Today's Post

    Einhorn Letter: Sunshine and the New Tech Bubble Einhorn explained to his investors his view that the markets are engaged in a new tech bubble, an echo of the infamous dotcom bubble of the 1990s. Accordingly, he says, Greenlight has created a basket of bubble stocks worth shorting.

    David Einhorn’s letter to his Greenlight partners, on one level a review of the first quarter results, is actually a wide-ranging discussion of the investment world today. Einhorn, the author of Fooling Some of the People All of the Time, can spin a tale, and he spins several here. On those results: Greenlight suffered a small loss in the quarter because its short positions “lost a bit more than we made on our longs, and macro lost a little.” Looking forward, Einhorn expects good things from Sun Edison (SUNE), one of his “several new long ideas.” The Long Side Here is the SUNE stock chart [contrasted with the SPX as black line] over the month before the release of the Einhorn letter: What is intriguing to Einhorn about SUNE, f/k/a MEMC? It has done what consultants (and activist investors) so often tell clients (and incumbent boards). It has sought to monetize its deadweight while concentrating on its core. SUNE develops solar power plants both for businesses and utilities. Greenlight considers this its good business. Alas, until ...

Featured Post

08-06-10 © Ljupco
Shattering the Myth of the Emerging Manager

Who are emerging managers? They may not be who you think they are. What does it take to get an allocation? Maybe not what you think.

By Ginger Szala Frank Pusateri has found there are two types of emerging managers: those who are just starting out, and those who have been around, even might have a couple hundred million under management, but only a few clients and want to expand that base. These are the emerging managers he sees attending the Emerging Manager forums that Pusateri and his partner Bucky Isaacson hold each year in London and Miami. No matter which type of emerging manager, they both should ...

12-10-13 © Vadven
Ukraine Falling to Economic Warfare and Its Own Missteps

As violence overtakes Ukraine in the east and Russian soldiers amass on the borders, it might be time to take a serious look at what Moscow's stated grievances are and why Ukraine's new leaders need to look east for unity and how they missed the boat on energy.

By Robert Bensh, Oilprice.com As protests in Ukraine’s eastern region turned violent on Sunday leading to the death of a Ukrainian security officer in a shootout with pro-Russian militia, Kiev threatens military action while Moscow flexes its geo-economic warfare muscles. Pro-Russian militia groups have seized government buildings and police headquarters in Ukraine’s eastern city of Donetsk and Slovyanks--where the shoot-out took place--and despite a Monday morning ultimatum by the Ukrainian government, these groups have shown no sign of giving in. There has been ...

Guest Posts

Skorina
The Skorina Report: PIMCO’s Heir-apparent goes missing
Charles Skorina looks at the implications of El-Erian "disappearing" from PIMCO.

By Charles Skorina The noisiest recent CIO turnover was at a sell-side firm, but one which is closely watched by many institutions.  PIMCO's CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian has been replaced -- or at least succeeded by -- a whole roomful of folks.  El-Erian, who reportedly earned $100 million in 2011, announced his departure in January and was gone by March 1.  He has no job in prospect except a part-time gig as a consultant to PIMCO's German parent Allianz SE. Douglas ...


Emerging markets

‘Prediction is Tricky, Especially about the Future’
Some respondents told Intralinks that Germany is a less attractive M&A target for international investors than it might be, due to the impact of rising energy costs there, especially on manufacturing.

yogi

Intralinks has coupled two announcements: the release of its Deal Flow Indicator, which it describes as a “unique predictor of future mergers and acquisitions” activity; and the results of a global survey on sentiment as to the future of M&A activity globally. The two have produced mutually confirming results. Among the take-aways: there is some enthusiasm for the telecom sector, and some wariness about German manufacturing, as scenes of upcoming M&A activity. Antitrust and Wireless Telecomm The DFI forecasts mergers through the second and third quarters of this year. One is reminded that ...

Academic Research

Pragmatic Foundations for an Austrian Home
Christopher Faille makes it clear that he has no Keynesian sympathies. In his humble opinion, the Austrians are in general right on the economics, though they could use some empirical/pragmatic assistance on the matter of epistemology.

Austrian

In a recent entry here I broached the issue of the epistemology behind Austrian economics, naming such names as Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, and Peter Boettke in the course of that discussion. I was delighted at the range of reactions and comments it drew, and I’m happy to respond to some of them here, rather than in the dark pool of the comments section. These are matters dear to my heart, and I’m thrilled when they receive a proper airing. Both Dammit and Scott O appear to be under the impression ...

Algorithmic and high-frequency trading

The Illusion of Conscious Investing Decisions
Consciousness did evolve. Why? I submit that there is no good answer to this question unless consciousness makes a difference to behavior. Trading and investing must be included as "behaviors" in that generalization.

redbutton

What happens when I decide to press a red button? Suppose I’m a volunteer for a laboratory experiment. The experimental apparatus is very simple: I have a red button and a blue button on a table in front of me. Pressing one has a predictably different outcome from pressing the other. I’ve been briefed on the outcomes (perhaps the red button means I get $5 today and the blue one means I get $7 tomorrow – though the specifics of the outcomes don’t matter right now.) So I’m told: go ahead. Make ...

Hedge Fund Strategies

What a Hedge Fund Failure Looks Like

07-15-09 © creisinger

By Jeff Malec, CAIA CEO, Founding Partner Attain Capital Management, LLC The Twittersphere couldn’t get enough of the news last week that hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones was shutting down one of his eponymous funds, the Tudor Tensor Fund (try saying Tudor Tensor 10 times fast). And critics of hedge funds will jump to the conclusion that it’s a dangerous world out there among alternative investments, and investors need to be careful because even a legend like Paul Tudor Jones can’t make money, having to shut down his futures fund.  Some will ...

Hedge Fund Industry Trends

Estimates Show 90% of Hedge Funds ‘Socialize’
Guest columnist Don Steinbrugge looks at how hedge funds can and do use social media

Steinbrugge

The use of social media has increased significantly within the hedge fund industry over the past couple of years. Social media is broadly used by investors as part of their due diligence process on hedge funds, by service providers in their sales efforts to hedge funds, and by hedge funds to enhance their marketing strategy, investment research, and the overall quality of their firm. The purpose of this paper is not to give legal advice, but to ...

Risk management

A Finalized Basel Rule: News and Views
But Basel is still part of the multinational push to fit the peg of credit derivatives into the square hole of standardized contracts and central clearing. Is the peg going to fit?

clock2

The Basel Committee has completed work on a much-anticipated final rule: its standard on “capital requirements for bank exposures to central counterparties.” Meanwhile, Marc Arnold, an assistant professor of finance at the Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen, has published his analysis of the impact of Basel III on lending discipline. His thoughts help focus the mind wonderfully. Arnold looks back to a much-debated question, and finds there is still juice in it. ...

Performance, Analytics & Metrics

Beware the Hedge Fund Indices of March, Caesar
Japan-focused funds had three consecutive months of negative returns this quarter. These numbers look particularly jarring in contrast to the 2013 returns, from back in the days when Abenomics was being hailed as a success.

caesar

Hedge fund managers don’t have the precognitive powers of ancient Roman soothsayers. They must rely, instead, on the old trick of looking for patterns in the past and present, and hoping they interpret them properly. But, as it happens, that famous soothsayer’s warning in March of 44 BC didn’t do Julius any good either so perhaps the absence of soothsaying does us of the 21st century no real harm. In our era, the independent data provider Eurekahedge ...

Institutional Investing

The Skorina Report: PIMCO’s Heir-apparent goes missing
Charles Skorina looks at the implications of El-Erian "disappearing" from PIMCO.

Skorina

By Charles Skorina The noisiest recent CIO turnover was at a sell-side firm, but one which is closely watched by many institutions.  PIMCO's CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian has been replaced -- or at least succeeded by -- a whole roomful of folks.  El-Erian, who reportedly earned $100 million in 2011, announced his departure in January and was gone by March 1.  He has no job in prospect except a part-time gig as a consultant to ...