Today's Post

    Asset Allocation & the Practical Application of Time-Window Analysis Guest columnist Andrew Smith, CAIA, on performance analysis and its effect on asset allocation.

    By Andrew Smith, CAIA Time window analysis is a version of performance analysis that takes looks at the statistical distribution of returns over different time-windows or holding periods. For example, let us say we have a fund with a 10-year track record of returns. A time window analysis would look at the return distribution of 1 day returns, 1 month returns, 3 month returns, etc on a day to day basis. So 1 month returns, for example would look at January 1 to February 1, January 2 to February 2, etc. in an effort to determine the most appropriate holding period for the fund. The shorter the time window, the larger the number of observations available, and the higher likelihood of negative returns within the time window, longer time frames would likely carry the opposite effect. The goal of the time window analysis is to determine if an investor can hold an investment long enough to significantly lower the risk of observing a negative return, and for how long the investor ...

Featured Post

One Ordinary Week in the Life of Climate Change

We thought it would be instructive to share with you links and the odd quote from recent press reports on the subject of climate change.  As a professional investor,  you no doubt want to be ahead of trends in the investment world.   Investment opportunities arise when there is a divergence of opinion, as is uniquely the case in the United States (unlike the other nations on Earth) on the subject of climate change.  The headlines of a few days tell ...

China’s Oil Giant At Center Of Corruption Probe's Ky Krauthamer looks at corruption in China's oil industry.

By Ky Krauthamer Grins were on the faces of China National Petroleum executives this week as they celebrated a blockbuster 30-year deal for Russian gas. It was a good day for CNPC, the state-owned colossus at the center of China’s oil and gas webs and one of Eurasia’s biggest energy investors. For some, however, those grins could soon turn to grimaces, because the deal comes against a backdrop of a series of high profile corruption investigations by the state, and CNPC has ...

Guest Posts

The Skorina Report is Surfing the Age of Asset Management: Will the tide of global AUM lift all asset-management boats?
Charles Skorina looks at the future of CIOs and with rising AUM and sees a forecast calling for sunny and bright. Maybe it's finally time to break out the shades!

By Charles Skorina The future looks bright for investment-management professionals as global assets under management surge from the current estimated $87 trillion dollars to a projected $400 trillion in 2050. Andrew G. Haldane of the Bank of England recently declared that global assets under management presently stand at about $87 trillion and says they'll rise 15 percent to $100 trillion by 2020, just five years from now. Looking farther out, Mr. Haldane foresees global AUM quadrupling to $400 trillion by 2050, boosted by ...

Risk management

Custodians Helping Customers with Securities as Collateral
How address issues of supply/demand imbalance in the world of collateral requirements? Custodians can do a good deal on behalf of their customers here, and are exploring just how much.

Sometimes the early material in a report is so boring that even us dedicated expositors can do nothing better than to splash into the middle. This is one of those times. But there is important stuff in the middle and end of the recent report by the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures, a working group under the umbrella of the Bank for International Settlements. The CPMI has issued a report on collateral management services. Nothing much matters here until Section III, which details the range of approaches that have ...

CAPM / Alpha Theory

Betting on Vice Doesn’t Really Pan Out
Christopher Faille, inspired by Greg Richey, of California State University, San Bernardino, has a few words about socially irresponsible investing, that is, the creation of a portfolio built around destructive human vices.

One venerable theory among alpha seekers is that one should bet on “vice,” that is, one ought to invest in companies that sell products widely regarded as anti-social, precisely because such companies are likely to have been heavily discounted. With all the regulatory and sociological artillery aimed over the years, over the decades now, at companies that sell liquor or tobacco, or allow gamblers to lose their money at felt tables, isn’t it plausible that investors have fled from the pertinent securities, and that the flight has more than compensated for ...


Judge Drain: Make That ‘Make Whole” Clause Explicit and Clear
Judge Drain didn't actually accept the Momentive plan, but it now seems likely he will accept some very similar plan in due course. What is key is that the objections that he found had unconvincing represented until then the conventional wisdom among much of the bar devoted to the service of event-driven litigators.

On August 27, the most actively traded corporate debt in the United States was that of a formerly obscure silicone maker, Momentive Performance Materials (MPM). MPM is 90% owned by Apollo Funds, the New York-based private equity concern. Why was this trading so active that day? Because the Hon. Robert Drain, of the U.S. bankruptcy court in White Plains, New York, had the day before come close to accepting MPM’s proposed restructuring plan for an exit from bankruptcy court protection. Judge Drain didn’t accept it in the end, but it seems likely ...


SEC Adopts Changes to Regulation AB: More Transparency
The SEC's new rules for asset backed securities require asset level disclosures both at the time of offering and later, on an ongoing basis. The disclosures are required to appear in a standardized XML format.

On Aug. 27, the Securities and Exchange Commission adopted revisions to its rules concerning asset backed securities, changes inspired by the losses suffered by holders of ABS in 2008. As the SEC said in the press release that accompanied the new rules, the 2008 losses “revealed that many investors in the securitization market were not fully aware of the risks underlying the securitized assets and over-relied on ratings assigned by credit rating agencies….” These rules have been in the oven for a long time: proposed four years ago, several rounds of comments ...


Vindicating Austrians: The New ESMA Warning on Risks
In a new report, ESMA discovers that some investors may be guilty of "over-reliance on continued policy support." I gather that means that investors believe that central bankers and governments will play the role of Santa Claus indefinitely.

The European Securities and Markets Authority recently warned that valuation risks are on the rise on key markets. Some of the reasoning of the report must be giving Austrian economists, those much-despised Cassandras of central-bank-inspired bubbles, a sense of vindication. The good news is that in the first half of 2014, EU securities markets have witnessed “significant gains amid low volatility and notwithstanding a challenging economic and political environment.” The corollary is: low interest rates force a ...

Performance, Analytics & Metrics

Merger Arb: Getting Your Stick to Where the Puck Will Be
Christopher Faille speaks to Matt Porzio, the VP of Strategy and Product Marketing at Intralinks, about the data behind Intralinks' DFI.

This spring and summer’s excitement over Valeant and Allergan, and the former’s desire to acquire the latter, fed a broader trend: the day of the merger arb is upon us in earnest. You’ll remember that at least some of the dust in that dust-up had cleared by August 27th, when Valeant and its ally, Pershing Square[V/PS], won an important point in the Delaware Chancery. Allergan now says that it will hold a special meeting of its ...

Retail Investing

Investing in the Investor
Guest columnist Diane Harrison looks at what advisors think of hedge funds.

By Diane Harrison With the third quarter of 2014 coming to its close, and year-end allocation decisions taking precedence in the minds of advisors and managers both, it seems a good time to take a look at an interesting survey result recently appearing on The publication asked over 300 advisors throughout the industry to share their views on hedge funds (Ten Charts That Explain What Advisors Think of Hedge Funds, by senior editor Megan Leonhardt, ...

Alternative energy investing

IEA Says Investment In Clean Energy Will Keep Growing, Slowly
Guest columnist Andy Tully looks at the future of renewable energy investment and finds a future so bright, you might need to wear shades.

By Andy Tully of The International Energy Agency (IEA) says overall investment in renewable energy will continue to grow through 2020, but at a slower rate than it has in recent years. The report says funding for clean energy reached a peak of $280 billion in 2011 and was still a generous $250 billion in 2013. But that is expected to decline to an average of $230 billion a year at least until 2020. Part of ...