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    ‘Prediction is Tricky, Especially about the Future’ Some respondents told Intralinks that Germany is a less attractive M&A target for international investors than it might be, due to the impact of rising energy costs there, especially on manufacturing.

    Intralinks has coupled two announcements: the release of its Deal Flow Indicator, which it describes as a “unique predictor of future mergers and acquisitions” activity; and the results of a global survey on sentiment as to the future of M&A activity globally. The two have produced mutually confirming results. Among the take-aways: there is some enthusiasm for the telecom sector, and some wariness about German manufacturing, as scenes of upcoming M&A activity. Antitrust and Wireless Telecomm The DFI forecasts mergers through the second and third quarters of this year. One is reminded that Yogi Berra is said to have warned the baseball world that prediction is tricky, with the qualification recorded above. But the DFI attempts to take account of that trickiness simply by tracking early pre-merger activity, the stirrings at one end of the pipeline that predictably indicate how large a flow will come out of the other end over coming months. The VP of M&A strategy and product marketing at Intralinks, Matt Porzio, says: “Many factors are driving a highly competitive market, ...

Featured Post

12-10-13 © Vadven
Ukraine Falling to Economic Warfare and Its Own Missteps

As violence overtakes Ukraine in the east and Russian soldiers amass on the borders, it might be time to take a serious look at what Moscow's stated grievances are and why Ukraine's new leaders need to look east for unity and how they missed the boat on energy.

By Robert Bensh, Oilprice.com As protests in Ukraine’s eastern region turned violent on Sunday leading to the death of a Ukrainian security officer in a shootout with pro-Russian militia, Kiev threatens military action while Moscow flexes its geo-economic warfare muscles. Pro-Russian militia groups have seized government buildings and police headquarters in Ukraine’s eastern city of Donetsk and Slovyanks--where the shoot-out took place--and despite a Monday morning ultimatum by the Ukrainian government, these groups have shown no sign of giving in. There has been ...

04-29-13 © PeJo29
U.S. Gas Prices Rise, but not because of Global Factors

Daniel J. Graeber, Oilprice.com, on the rising pricing at the pump in the U.S.

By Daniel J. Graeber Global energy markets are jostling between the return of Libyan crude oil and lingering tensions over Ukraine. It's domestic supply and demand issues, however, that are weighing on U.S. gasoline prices, AAA said Monday. Prices waxed and then waned amid dueling overseas developments. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned European energy security was at risk because of Kiev's debt obligations. The state-run oil firm in Libya, however, said the port of Zawiya and associated oil infrastructure were ...

Guest Posts

Skorina
The Skorina Report: PIMCO’s Heir-apparent goes missing
Charles Skorina looks at the implications of El-Erian "disappearing" from PIMCO.

By Charles Skorina The noisiest recent CIO turnover was at a sell-side firm, but one which is closely watched by many institutions.  PIMCO's CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian has been replaced -- or at least succeeded by -- a whole roomful of folks.  El-Erian, who reportedly earned $100 million in 2011, announced his departure in January and was gone by March 1.  He has no job in prospect except a part-time gig as a consultant to PIMCO's German parent Allianz SE. Douglas ...


Hedge Fund Industry Trends

Estimates Show 90% of Hedge Funds ‘Socialize’
Guest columnist Don Steinbrugge looks at how hedge funds can and do use social media

Steinbrugge

The use of social media has increased significantly within the hedge fund industry over the past couple of years. Social media is broadly used by investors as part of their due diligence process on hedge funds, by service providers in their sales efforts to hedge funds, and by hedge funds to enhance their marketing strategy, investment research, and the overall quality of their firm. The purpose of this paper is not to give legal advice, but to focus on trends that my firm, Agecroft Partners, is seeing regarding the increased use of ...

Risk management

A Finalized Basel Rule: News and Views
But Basel is still part of the multinational push to fit the peg of credit derivatives into the square hole of standardized contracts and central clearing. Is the peg going to fit?

clock2

The Basel Committee has completed work on a much-anticipated final rule: its standard on “capital requirements for bank exposures to central counterparties.” Meanwhile, Marc Arnold, an assistant professor of finance at the Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, University of St. Gallen, has published his analysis of the impact of Basel III on lending discipline. His thoughts help focus the mind wonderfully. Arnold looks back to a much-debated question, and finds there is still juice in it. This is the question of moral hazard in a particular form: how easy is it ...

Performance, Analytics & Metrics

Beware the Hedge Fund Indices of March, Caesar
Japan-focused funds had three consecutive months of negative returns this quarter. These numbers look particularly jarring in contrast to the 2013 returns, from back in the days when Abenomics was being hailed as a success.

caesar

Hedge fund managers don’t have the precognitive powers of ancient Roman soothsayers. They must rely, instead, on the old trick of looking for patterns in the past and present, and hoping they interpret them properly. But, as it happens, that famous soothsayer’s warning in March of 44 BC didn’t do Julius any good either so perhaps the absence of soothsaying does us of the 21st century no real harm. In our era, the independent data provider Eurekahedge has just issued its latest report on the state of the world’s hedge fund industry, ...

Institutional Investing

The Skorina Report: PIMCO’s Heir-apparent goes missing
Charles Skorina looks at the implications of El-Erian "disappearing" from PIMCO.

Skorina

By Charles Skorina The noisiest recent CIO turnover was at a sell-side firm, but one which is closely watched by many institutions.  PIMCO's CEO and Co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian has been replaced -- or at least succeeded by -- a whole roomful of folks.  El-Erian, who reportedly earned $100 million in 2011, announced his departure in January and was gone by March 1.  He has no job in prospect except a part-time gig as a consultant to PIMCO's German parent Allianz SE. Douglas Hodge (a non-portfolio manager) will be the new CEO.  And ...

Academic Research

Pragmatic Foundations for an Austrian Home
Christopher Faille makes it clear that he has no Keynesian sympathies. In his humble opinion, the Austrians are in general right on the economics, though they could use some empirical/pragmatic assistance on the matter of epistemology.

Austrian

In a recent entry here I broached the issue of the epistemology behind Austrian economics, naming such names as Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, and Peter Boettke in the course of that discussion. I was delighted at the range of reactions and comments it drew, and I’m happy to respond to some of them here, rather than in the dark pool of the comments section. These are matters dear to my heart, and I’m thrilled when ...

Algorithmic and high-frequency trading

The Illusion of Conscious Investing Decisions
Consciousness did evolve. Why? I submit that there is no good answer to this question unless consciousness makes a difference to behavior. Trading and investing must be included as "behaviors" in that generalization.

redbutton

What happens when I decide to press a red button? Suppose I’m a volunteer for a laboratory experiment. The experimental apparatus is very simple: I have a red button and a blue button on a table in front of me. Pressing one has a predictably different outcome from pressing the other. I’ve been briefed on the outcomes (perhaps the red button means I get $5 today and the blue one means I get $7 tomorrow – ...

Hedge Fund Strategies

What a Hedge Fund Failure Looks Like

07-15-09 © creisinger

By Jeff Malec, CAIA CEO, Founding Partner Attain Capital Management, LLC The Twittersphere couldn’t get enough of the news last week that hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones was shutting down one of his eponymous funds, the Tudor Tensor Fund (try saying Tudor Tensor 10 times fast). And critics of hedge funds will jump to the conclusion that it’s a dangerous world out there among alternative investments, and investors need to be careful because even a legend like ...

Academic Research

Science, Scientism and Economics: Some Timely Thoughts
If you wish, you can take the idea that humans are purposive as a very broad empirical generalization. Or you can take it in various other ways. What matters is that it certainly isn’t as specific or historical as the kind of fact-gathering that the historicists of yore had in mind. And that continues to serve as a sore point in discussions within and about Austrian economics.

MRothbard

There’s been a dust-up in a certain corner of cyberspace recently about an arcane-sounding subject, the epistemology behind Austrian economics. The term “Austrian” has lost its geographical specificity in recent decades, and has become a factional tag in economics. It refers to certain theories and, even more, to a certain style in the presentation of theories. For example, Austrians see macroeconomics as derived from microeconomics (when it isn’t simply wrong), and they see microeconomics as very ...