Study Says The Gold Bugs are Right

Aug 23rd, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Gold, Hard metals, Risk management, Today's Post

Gold seems, to a larger extent than silver, and even more so to an extent larger than is true for palladium or platinum, to work as a true financial asset: decoupled from price developments in the commodity markets. It succeeds as a hedge against currency and stock-market trouble.

Another Southeast Asia Currency Crisis

Aug 17th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Forex, Today's Post

China's moves in recent days seem likely to set off a new Southeast Asia currency crisis, which will look a lot like the old Southeast Asia currency crisis. This was clear even on August 11th, when traders in the rest of the world were apparently working on the premise that China's move that day was a one-off.

The LIBOR Fixing Scandal Gets a Conviction and a Book

Aug 9th, 2015 | Filed under: Book review, Currencies, Derivatives, Forex, Today's Post

When it all hit the fan, U.S. investigators in particular (the Brits somewhat less so) came to see Hayes as a mastermind behind its digestive generation. But Arvedlund seeks in her new book on the Libor Rigging scandal to place the role Hayes played in context.

Overtrading and the Danger of Pro Rata

Jul 30th, 2015 | Filed under: Algorithmic and high-frequency trading, Commodities, Currencies, Derivatives, Forex, Today's Post

Guest columnist Ginger Szala looks at pro rata and what happens if...

Banned in China: High Praise for a Statistics Textbook

May 13th, 2015 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Macroeconomics, Today's Post

At this moment, when news from China has turned sober and the monetary/fiscal authorities there seem torn by inconsistent goals, a tweet flutter has reminded us of a boring data-analysis text that was nixed by a publishing house in China for reasons of political sensitivity.

John H. Makin, Hedge Fund Economist/Principal, Defender of U.S. Fed

Apr 8th, 2015 | Filed under: Academic Research, Alpha Hunters, Currencies, Forex, Today's Post

The impression one gets from some of the recent work of Dr. Makin is of a man who decided, late in life, that currency is a state invention, and that the states deputize their central banks to make sure the rest of us use it properly.

Don’t Blame the Swiss: Results Discounted Days Before Vote

Dec 8th, 2014 | Filed under: Commodities, Currencies, Forex, Gold, Hard metals, Today's Post

The price of gold took a swan dive as November ended, just as Swiss voters formally nixed an initiative that would have required the central bank to buy a lot of the stuff. Faille argues that this is not a matter of cause and effect. It is, on the other hand, a fascinating case study in the discounting machinery that is a market.

Extra! Extra! Central Banking the Disease It Affects to Cure

Nov 16th, 2014 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Today's Post

The release of Lord Grabiner's report provides evidence going well beyond the conclusions that Grabiner himself is willing to draw, and shows a central bank acting as a wink-and-nod clearing house.

Bitcoin Miners: The Hammer and the Butterfly

Oct 6th, 2014 | Filed under: Currencies, Digital currencies, Editor's Pick, Forex, Today's Post

In the matter of a merchant selling computers that are supposed to mine bitcoin, the FTC alleges that the merchant is a sham, simply using the language of the bitcoin world to find suckers. But the agency might have gotten a bit ahead of itself here.

BIS to US Fed: You’re Messing with the World

Aug 25th, 2014 | Filed under: Currencies, Emerging markets, Forex, Today's Post

There are several channels for spill-over effects, whereby the actions of the Federal Reserve and the ECB can have grave consequences around the world. Psychological consequence, in particular herding, is among them.

Can We Agree to Stop Calling It the ‘Tobin tax’?

Mar 16th, 2014 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Today's Post

Arjuna Sittampalam, editor of Investment Management Review and a Research Associate with EDHEC-Risk Institute, cautions the asset management industry in Europe that even if the idea of a continent-wide FTT is defeated, it may encounter a "worse development."

Liquidity? Perhaps It Is What it Does

Feb 23rd, 2014 | Filed under: Academic Research, Asset pricing, Forex, Today's Post

Four researchers have developed an "event-based" understanding of Liquidity, measuring it as a characterization (from 0 to 1) of the predictability of asset price trajectories. Illiquidity is surprise.

Anti-Fragility: South African Central Banker on Dollar and Rand

Dec 9th, 2013 | Filed under: Conference report, Emerging markets, Forex, Today's Post

It is certainly true that a lot of foreign-denominated debt would worsen prospects for South Africa. But even in the absence of such a trap: can a nation boast of anti-fragility (or even, more aptly, of robustness) simply because it has the option of devaluation?

Chinese Challenges and Waiting Games: Cerulli

Dec 1st, 2013 | Filed under: Emerging markets, Forex, Today's Post

The QFII advisory business will for tricky for the smaller fund management companies, because the private firms with which they compete there "tend to boast better investment teams."

Canada’s Derivatives Market since the Global Finance Crisis

Nov 4th, 2013 | Filed under: Derivatives, ETFs, Forex, Today's Post

Consider TMX index futures: volume and open interest were both heading up sharply in the period 2005-06. But OI peaked in 2006, while volumes continued up for another two years. Going forward, too, the two are not expected to move in tandem.

PrevInvest: Fishing for Yield in a World of Liquidity

May 19th, 2013 | Filed under: Asset pricing, Forex, Today's Post

A new report by PrevInvest, the "Investment Outlook & Hedge Fund Strategies Insight Report," focuses on the consequences of the race to the bottom among the world's industrialized nations and their central banks, and the way this has created a lot of sloshing-around of liquidity looking for profitable channels.

The Mere Whisper of the Name ‘Soros’

May 15th, 2013 | Filed under: Currencies, Forex, Media Coverage of Hedge Funds, Today's Post

Facile parallels notwithstanding, neither the argument Druckenmiller made at Sohn nor any other good reasons that may now exist for shorting the Aussie have a lot to do with the case against the pound in 1992. That tug-of-war occurred in a unique context, not here replicated.

Basel/IOSCO ‘Near Final’ Proposal: Part Two

Mar 3rd, 2013 | Filed under: Derivatives, Forex, Regulatory, Today's Post

This is the second of a two-part discussion of a paper jointly issued by Basel and IOSCO on margin requirements for non-centrally cleared derivatives. The new paper solicits feedback on the phase-in timeline it proposes, a phase-in designed to provide flexibility so the affected markets can meet "operational and logistical challenges" by which they might otherwise be stymied.

Alpha Hunters: Looking at Alternative Investments From the Inside Out

Jun 7th, 2012 | Filed under: Alpha Hunters, Alpha Strategies, CTA, Derivatives, Forex, Hedge Fund Industry Trends, Hedge Fund Strategies, Institutional Investing, Private Equity, Real Estate, Today's Post, Venture capital

A deeper look at alternatives with Dr. Bob Swarup, a world-renowned expert and commentator on alternatives and financial markets as well as being a visiting fellow at London School of Economics.

EDHEC: SWFs and Their Implicit Liabilities

Apr 15th, 2012 | Filed under: Alpha Strategies, Forex, Institutional Investing, Today's Post

SWFs are distinct from pension funds at least in this sense, there are broadly speaking no explicit liabilities. There is no ongoing schedule of payments an SWF is responsible for making, for example. Nonetheless, there are clearly implicit liabilities. On this the point nearly all (92 percent) of survey respondents concurred, saying that implicit liabilities, arising from the objectives of the fund, must be taken into account in managers’ plans.