With the surfeit of cataclysmic hedge fund news being reported daily, it’s easy to lose perspective.  However, Barton Biggs injected some balance into the hedge fund discussion with a piece in Fortune last week.  Wrote Biggs:

“In every bear market I have seen, the doomsayers concoct a statistical argument that the glory days for stocks are over, because a flood of selling by brutalized investors is inevitable, and the buyers have no money. This case always seems most compelling close to the end of the declines and is always marked by a wave of media pronouncements.”

Today, we take Biggs’ lead and deliver a newsreel made up entirely of “good news” stories that seem to suggest hedge funds may just survive the financial crisis after all…

Get Over The Hedge: “Wall Street is braced for a wave of fund redemptions that is unlikely to be as as large as feared.  Hedge funds are to the modern stock market as sun spots were to electronics in the 1960s: a convenient scapegoat when things go wrong without an evident cause.”

Study suggests private banks remain positive on alternatives: A survey of European private banks finds that “42% of private banks are recommending that clients increase their portfolio allocation to alternative assets such as private equity and commercial property in the next year, with 58% expecting that their suggested allocations will remain the same.”

Hiring outpaces firing for fund managers: “More asset managers are hiring than are firing staff, according to new research, despite the downturn in markets and investor confidence that has led many in the fund management industry to start cutting costs.”

Hedge Fund Outflows Seen at Just 6% in ‘08: Citi: “The hedge fund industry could see net client outflows of just 6% during the whole of 2008, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc., who believe the United Kingdom’s traditional fund industry is shrinking at a faster rate.”

The Hedge Fund Collapse: “…hedge funds didn’t cause the credit crisis. Some are doing well, even spectacularly. And many will survive..many hedge fund managers are anticipating great times-if they survive. ‘This will be the best moneymaking environment of my career,’ the hedge fund veteran tells me. ‘Tons of competition are out, and even the capital that will survive is underlevered. And we are starting with disparities and opportunities you’ve never seen.’”

Hedge funds ‘are resilient’: “We are quite positive because even though things have been very dark the night is always darkest just before the dawn…Now that we have seen the sell off and that is pretty well out of the way then hedge funds are ideally placed to profit from market dislocation…”

UK pension funds move from equity into alternatives: “Half of UK pension funds plan to decrease their allocation to equity in favour of increasing investments in alternative assets, though transparency remains a driver for allocating to the class, a new study suggests.”

Alternatives have provided protection: “An indisputable majority of pension funds have claimed diversification into alternatives has protected them in the ongoing financial crisis, the results of the latest Global Pensions 100 Panel have shown.”

Crisis? What crisis? Some hedge funds are gaining: “Despite Wall Street’s reputation as a place of big money and bigger egos, many of the winners are reluctant to boast, particularly given the gaping losses threatening some rivals.”

Active management ‘will survive crisis’: “The move towards active asset management should ultimately survive the current economic crisis, says a prominent Austrian pension fund manager.”

Schwarzman says Blackstone’s model will hold up despite downturn: “…the investments made during years when there was a stock market decline were years in which private equity firm investments ultimately yielded the most. The two years in the last 20 in which such investments generated the most return were 1991, with 31% returns, and 2001, with 33%.”

Investment Consultants Focus Search Activity in Alternative Asset Classes-Hedge Funds and Funds of Hedge Funds-While Demand for Traditional Long-only Products is Stagnant: “Many long-only products have difficulty in generating consistent alpha, and institutions would rather index core asset classes using ETFs, index funds, or derivatives.”

One seeder warming from the chill over hedge funds: “The hot money leaving hedge funds today tends to be individuals. I’m seeing that most large, well-established pension funds are not redeeming.”

Apparently, the stigma associated with closing redemption gates is quickly disappearing.  As Thomson reports,

Blocking investors’ exits, even if only briefly, was once a highly unusual move that often signaled a hedge fund was on the verge of collapse, managers and investors acknowledged…That is changing now as ever-more managers and investors engage in a tug of war over who can receive money right now.”

Wealth Bulletin cites 6 hedge fund managers that have suspended redemptions and several that have offered “sweeteners” for investors to stick around.  The list of new gates includes: Centaurus Capital, Polygon Investment Partners (old news), Gottex Fund Management, Wermuth Asset Management, Auriel, and Atlantis Investment Management.  According to the publication, favorable fee sweeteners have been offered in exchange for locking-in capital at: RAB Capital, Ramius Capital, BlueBay Asset Management and Henderson Global Investors.

The Times reports on an interesting twist.  RAB Capital, says the paper, is offering a form of IOU to investors that promises to pay them out as soon as the firm can sell the requisite securities (not, we assume, at some later redemption date).

The ground isn’t the only thing being frozen in Minnesota this fall.  Investment News reports that Deephaven, the $1.6 billion multi-strategy fund, froze redemptions when 30% of investors asked for their money back.  Apparently the fund was up 16% per year for 10+ years, then hit the skids with a -25% YTD by the end of October.

Meanwhile in Australia, long-only funds have also closed their redemption gates.  According to Bloomberg, Perpetual Ltd. has suspended redemptions from its income and mortgage funds while Everest Babcock & Brown has suspended redemptions from its own income fund.

A letter from Pentwater Capital to its investors gives some insight into how redemptions affect fund management.  HedgeCo.net reports that the firm recently created two different liquidity/fee classes and told investors: “The entire hedge fund industry is bracing for large redemptions at year-end so as not to become forced sellers in the midst of a severe market crisis…If the Fund were to meet the year-end redemption requests we have received, the Fund would be forced to sell more of its investments into one of the worst markets since the great depression.”

The Wall Street Journal estimates that the recently imposed gates govern around $20 billion, although it’s not clear what it defines as “recently”.

Although the notice period required to redeem from a hedge fund can range from 30 days to 90 days, Reuters reports that November 15th (45 days before year end) is “D-Day” for the hedge fund industry.  Problem is, the more this is reported, the more investors are likely to want to redeem.  Reuters cites experts who say funds of funds are redeeming 15-20% from their underlying managers just in case.

One manager warns that the rush for the exits creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.  David Thompson of Collingham Capital told a conference audience in London recently that:

“One of the problems has been that investors have been getting out too quickly. You don’t want to be in the situation where you invest in something where a lot of people want to get out at the end of this month, the end of this year, or on a daily basis.”

Even regulators are weighing in on the issue of preemptive redemptions.  The head of the UK’s Financial Services Authority told the same conference audience about one reason why he thinks hedge fund investors were stampeding to the exits:

“…gate structures that may have been established several years ago may need to be reviewed in order to avoid generating additional redemptions from otherwise satisfied investors taking steps to avoid being ‘at the back of the queue’.”

Key lesson: When someone yells “fire!”, rush out of the building first …Figure out if it was a hoax later…

Late Breaking Addendum: According to Thomson, the $3 billion Blue Mountain Credit Alternatives Fund closed the redemption gate recently even though YTD returns were only -2.4%.  The problem according to company management?  Fund of funds redemptions.

With so much breaking news to digest recently, it’s difficult to find the time to look down the road at what’s coming next for the alternative investment industry.  Critics of hedge funds often evoke images of the fictional Lake Wobegon where the children “are all above average”.  But the current market crisis may finally help us all move beyond this tired metaphor.

To begin with, the FT peered into the crystal ball last week to predict how the asset management industry would look when the dust settles.

“…the credit crisis could accelerate the change already blowing through the asset management industry and reconfigure it so that risk management becomes centre stage and hedge funds become part of a bigger absolute return sector.”

And in the mind of at least one industry expert, the future is all about alpha (and beta)…

“‘The credit crisis is causing an inflection point,’ says Suzanne Duncan, the financial markets industry lead for the [IBM] Institute [for Business value].  ‘Asset management chief executives think the industry is going to change significantly “and they don’t know how they should react’. Ms Duncan thinks this is good news rather than the reverse.”

“She expects three types of players to emerge as the dust settles: in the jargon of the industry, there will be firms focusing on alpha, beta and advice.

“Investment banks will become beta, or market return, providers. Their leverage levels will drop from the 30 times common today to perhaps 10 times - the same as commercial banks. That will cut in half their return on earnings, leading to an exodus of “talent” to the buy side.

“That will lead to growth in the alpha, or skill-based, industry. ‘We will see alpha providers getting much bigger,’ says Ms Duncan.”

Despite this endorsement for alpha-centric investing, the FT remains somewhat skeptical…

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It’s becoming difficult to tell whether the mass hysteria surrounding hedge funds this month is driven by reality or schadenfreude. There is little doubt that some high profile hedge funds will experience some redemptions this week. But today alone, we saw the hedge fund industry being described as a “horror show”, a “hellfire” and a “bloodbath” that is “heading for the rocks“. We heard about “investors pounding on the doors to get out”. We were warned by experts that there is “smoke billowing from Greenwich” and that the “suffering will be profound”.

While this is great copy, it simplifies the hedge fund industry in the same way that talk of hedge fund managers all buying yachts was de rigueur only a few years ago.  Less widely reported was that hundreds of hedge funds closed up shop every year during those Halcyon days.  And less widely reported today is that fact that many funds are thriving in today’s environment (and not just the mega-short funds like Paulson & Co.). The high dispersion of hedge funds illustrates their attractive quality - idiosyncractic risk. In aggregate, hedge funds are down around 10% YTD. But recent reports suggest that over half of hedge funds were reporting positive YTD returns right up to the end of August.

It’s becoming a knee-jerk reaction to warn of the perils of hedge fund leverage.   Some estimates suggest the $2 trillion hedge fund industry had amassed up to $600 billion in cash by the end of September in preparation, some hypothesize, for quarter-end redemptions. This dramatic de-leveraging has also been picked up by various measures of leverage (see related posts).

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Nearly 10 years ago, two Tremont executives and a new media manager for a Thomson Financial publication had an idea - a website that would “be the first independent Internet community and e-commerce platform which will be the catalyst for reinventing the way the industry communicates and transacts its business“.  They called it “HedgeWorld” and it quickly became a leading Internet brand in the burgeoning hedge fund industry. 

Said the firm’s December 8, 1998 press release:

“Hedgeworld.com features a wealth of tools and information products and services that benefit investors, managers and service providers. For example, an individual investor in Switzerland can receive customized news from major online sources for all the hedge funds included in their actual or model portfolios in HedgeWorld. Or, an investment manager based in London can broadcast an alert to a pre-qualified audience of financial institutions in Asia. In addition, a prime broker in New York, at the direction of its hedge fund manager, can send specific portfolio information to selected investors in a secure environment. Members of the media can use HedgeWorld to distribute or research stories. For regulators, HedgeWorld can enable greater transparency and disclosure among community members. Timely and accurate online information is enhanced by easy-to-use site design, objective and in-depth hedge fund industry research, accurate performance data and secure e-commerce capabilities.”

It was an audacious goal, but one that attracted a lot of users, sponsors and eventually acquirers.

However, after changing hands a number of times, HedgeWorld’s new owners (somewhat ironically, Thomson Reuters) laid off the majority of staff this weekend, ending a storied history and releasing a team of excellent financial journalists into the waiting arms of the hedge fund community (see Friday’s posting).  Reports suggest the brand may live on (as MAR Hedge did after it met its maker in 2006), but there seems to be little question that this marks an end to the franchise as an independent entity.

In deference to the grande dame of hedge fund websites, we have assembled a gallery of HedgeWorld screen shots from throughout the firm’s history (thanks to archive.org).  For online publishers like us, it’s interesting to see how each site reflects the prevailing web design conventions of the day.  But even if you don’t care about these kinds of things, you will find this walk down memory lane may at least remind you of better days for the industry…  (late breaking addendum: for a little extra walking down memory lane, check out HedgeWorld’s own tribute to its departing crew here) 

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After two years at the helm of the eponymously named Insana Capital, former CNBC anchor Ron Insana has scuppered the ship - bailing out for calmer waters at SAC Capital.  Also this week, it was revealed that a reporter and columnist for the Wall Street Journal was lured from the fifth estate by Plainfield Asset Management and Dane Hamilton of Reuters was hired by Carl Icahn to write his blog postings for him.  This, after MarketWatch’s Herb Greenberg bailed to start his own research firm in July. 

It’s almost as if financial journalists don’t get paid enough or something.

All of a sudden, hedge funds seem to want to hire people who have huge networks, are intelligent and have a great understanding of the hedge fund and financial service industry.  But the trend, if it is one, began some time ago.  This is just the latest chapter in an ongoing dance between hedge funds and media people. 

About a year ago, I was having lunch with a business journalist friend who was being courted by a major hedge fund company to join them to help with marketing.  At around that time, someone emailed me a job description for an opening at a hedge fund that specifically included “journalism” as a prerequisite. 

Even today, you see more and more job listings popping up with the words “investigative” and “journalism” in them.  Here’s one I picked off such a job board earlier today:

“…Bachelor degree with a stellar academic performance required, master degree could be a plus.  Must have strong investigative skills, a background in journalism could be a plus…”

The question is: are asset managers suddenly realizing how to exploit the skills of (underpaid) financial journalists, or are the journalists trying to escape before they are taken to the firing line along with thousands of their colleagues in the media industry?   

Who knows?  But financial journalists and hedge fund managers may have a lot more in common than first meets the eye.  As Tim Price, himself an (excellent) part-time financial columnist said way back in 2006:

“They live in a high-octane world. What they do is risky. They’re grotesquely overpaid, they have few scruples, and their influence on the markets is out of all proportion to their true size. They’re fast, extremely short-termist and utterly unregulated. Yes, they’re journalists writing about hedge funds.”

The list of stories below was lifted from the most recent edition of our “Alpha Mail” monthly email update.  Each month, we try to highlight stories that illustrate two sides of a hedge fund or alpha-centric issue.  This month’s set of links clearly illustrate the wide divergence of angles on the current state of the hedge fund industry. (note: you’ll need a free registration to view some of these.)

Battered funds cling to hope of recovery (Financial News): “Hedge funds are struggling to shake off their worst quarter since records began…”

Hedge fund investors want out sooner, not later (Reuters): “Worried about hedge funds’ low returns and high fees, more well-heeled investors are now talking about getting out of these loosely regulated portfolios than getting into them…”

HNWIs cool on allocation to hedge funds (Hedge Funds Review): “Allocation to hedge funds from high net worth individuals (HNWIs) slipped to 9% in 2007 from 10% in 2006…”

Tough Markets Alter HF Managers’ Practices (HedgeWorld): “Last year’s turbulent market environment prompted hedge fund managers around the world to lower leverage ratios and move a significant share of their assets into cash…”

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Amongst public relations professionals, there is an axiom that goes something like this: In the absence of the complete story, journalists are forced to create their own conclusions. 

Many companies have learned that starving the news media of the facts they demand often backfires.  In such a situation, journalists a) have no choice but to attempt to fill in the gaps with conjecture and b) often do so totally unchallenged.  So “filling in the gaps” is actually a very rational response when you think about it. 

A column on Monday by one of Canada’s most respected commentators makes this point in spades.  In a piece entitled “Hedge Funds: the credit crunch’s enigma“, Globe & Mail columnist Eric Reguly makes a series of remarks about hedge funds that even he suggests is based on little, if any, hard facts.

Clearly miffed about another drive-by smearing, the Canadian Chapter of AIMA (the Alternative Investment Management Association) followed its parent organization’s lead this week by speaking out - this time in a letter to Reguly obtained by AllAboutAlpha.com yesterday. 

As you may recall, AIMA’s London headquarters issued a rare rebuke of hedge fund media coverage last month in the form of a press release quoting the organization’s Chief Executive (see related posting, read press release).  Taken together, these responses suggest AIMA is taking a more active stance on educating the media and the public at large about alternative investments.  And that’s a good thing.

Here’s what Reguly said about hedge funds on Monday:

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Canada’s National Post reports that the FBI is now warning of hedge fund fraud (”FBI Warns of Hedge Fund Fraud“).  But in actuality, FBI Director Robert Meuller gave a 2,000 word speech last week in which “hedge fund” appeared only once - after a lengthy discussion corporate fraud, public corruption, insider trading, mortgage fraud and Conrad Black.  The one reference to hedge funds…

“These investigations may well lead to other instances of fraud, from investment banks and private equity firms to hedge funds.”

…Not quite the “warning” trumpted by the Post.

As the footnote to Chuck Jaffe’s recent MarketWatch piece on 130/30 suggests, his opinion carries a lot of weight (”His work appears in dozens of US newspapers”).  So when he presented such a negative view of short-extension strategies, we felt compelled to explore his arguments further.  Unfortunately, while he presents an adequate understanding of the strategy, he is too quick to write off the approach.  

His April 20th commentary is entitled “Long on shortcomings: Numbers don’t add up for faddish 130/30 funds” and his main argument is that “early returns don’t seem to justify the hype”.  While that may indeed be the case, extrapolating from these early returns is premature at best and totally inappropriate at worst. 

Headline-writers as “dozens of US newspapers” are getting creative with Jaffe’s piece:

• “As the latest fad in funds, 130/30 is looking overblown”
• “Fidelity follows dubious fad by opening 130/30 fund”
• “Look beyond hype of trendy plans like 130/30 fund”

Stretching the data 

Unfortunately, readers in dozens of US cities are now getting the wrong idea about 130/30 funds. 

For example, Jaffe references research conducted by the UK-based Investment Week magazine:

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Many countries around the world take a somewhat skeptical view of wealth.  While many people in those countries aspire to be wealthy, those who have achieved wealth are usually expected not to flaunt it.  As a result, foreigners are often struck by the respect and admiration engendered by wealth in the United States.   In the US, wealth isn’t just tolerated, it is celebrated. 

But even this staid reverence has its limits.  Yesterday’s release of Alpha Magazine’s top-earning hedge fund managers has – at least for this week – reignited the debate over what is fair and equitable in US society.  The result has been a sort of mixture of two familiar issues: CEO compensation and the get rich quick phenomenon of the (pre-implosion) tech bubble 

John Paulson was #1 on Alpha’s list with 2007 earnings of $3.7 billion.  Nine other hedge fund managers made over $500 million.  Not surprisingly, the media is now replete with stories about how crumbling home prices and $100 oil helped Wall Street’s Highest Earners pull in $19 billion last year, and there is growing outrage over the quantum of these numbers.

Paulson’s net worth rose by $3.7 billion last year.  Yet he wouldn’t have even have made the top 10 on Forbes annual list of the largest year-over-year increases in wealth.  According to the most recent Forbes 400 list (October 2007), Bill Gates and Warren Buffet each made $6 billion while Michael Bloomberg made $6.2 billion.  Relative no-names like David Koch and Sheldon Adelson made $5 billion and $7.5 billion respectively.

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The Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) is the de facto global voice of the hedge fund industry (disclosure: Alpha Male helped establish one of its chapters and the London-based organization also co-founded the CAIA designation, a site partner of AllAboutAlpha.com.)

Earlier today, AIMA issued a press release that could very well double as a posting on AllAboutAlpha.com called Hedge Fund Industry Target of Unreasonable Criticism.

It essentially draws attention to one of the central findings of the Greenwich Associates survey discussed above: that hedge funds and other alternative investments have now become mainstream.  In additon, it questions mass media reporting of the industry and calls for more balanced reporting going forward.

Those who might think we at AllAboutAlpha.com are a bunch of hedge fund apologists – look away now.  Below we re-publish said press release in its entirety:

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Last week, media reports trumpeted that investors removed $3.5bn from equity market neutral hedge funds in September (see data).

This makes perfect sense, really.  According to one report it was because some of them “made losses of more than 30% during the previous month, even though they are intended to move independently of the stock markets.”

But it’s often the stories that “make perfect sense” that subsequently go unchallenged and unquestioned.  So we thought a sober second thought might be in order…

a) While it’s true that a few high profile funds (out of 9,000) were down big time, the HFRI Hedge Fund Composite Index, a broad measure of hedge fund performance was down only 1.5% - a far cry from “more than 30%“.

b) The S&P 500 was actually up in August, not down.  So it’s not clear what this report means by “moving independently of the stock markets“.  But even if both the market and the HFRI were down a lot in August, that still wouldn’t say anything about the correlation between the two.  After all, two uncorrelated coins flipped together could both end up heads at the same time.  Would that mean they are actually correlated after all?  (see related posting)

c) But the element that really gives us pause is this: the source of the asset outflow data, database company Barclayhedge, made the same sort of pronouncement last month (about August’s asset numbers) - only to recant a few days later when the firm realized assets had actually grown in July, not shrunk. 

In fairness, last month was the first time this particular study had been undertaken.  And this new data may well be totally accurate this time, but it underscores the danger of rushing to conclusion regarding hedge fund data - especially when that conclusion is so easy to believe.

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October 30 seems to have become “scary hedge fund day” in the UK - a precursor to Halloween when the mainstream media delivers outlandish conclusions about hedge funds that go bump in the night (see posting on last year’s best in class, the Economist).

The London Daily Telegraph steps up this year to deliver a hatchet job on hedge funds.  This entertaining article (”Tall Tales: Don’t buy the hedge fund fairy story“) references a recent survey by Barclays and the Economist Intelligence Unit and suggests that hedge funds are selling “magic beans”, a la the story Jack and the Bean Stock. 

The article’s main thesis is that more people plan to invest in hedge funds and private equity  despite the fact that they are not familiar with them:

“…according to Barclays, they [investors interviewed for the report] plan to ditch stocks and shares and put hedge funds and private equity at the top of their buy lists instead – despite the fact that more than two-thirds of them admitted that they did not understand how such investments worked.”

Like any haunted house, looking beyond the facade reveals a situation that is far less dramatic or alarming. 

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130/30 “more appropriately referred to as 1X0/X0″ says leading research institute

Edhec’s Walter Gehin has been busy this month.  On Wednesday, we told you about his survey of the hedge fund replication industry.  Today, we take note of this 1X0/X0 “state of the industry” report by Gehin.  Once again, he does the heavy lifting by listing out recent major fund launches that have been attracting “strikingly large inflows”.  And once again, he produces a succinct and dispassionate article that summarizes many of the recent academic papers and media articles on the subject without needless editorializing.

By the way, when noting that there is nothing particularly magical about the “30″ in 130/30, Gehin says:

“In the USA, the Regulation T limits gross exposure to no more than twice the investment capital. European Union regulations likewise restrict market exposure to 200%. So shorting is limited to 50%, corresponding to a 150/50 fund. Managers thus have a range of configurations at their disposal, from 110/10 to 150/50.  130/30 is restrictive and is more appropriately referred to as 1X0/X0.”

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